Martin Paterson | In His Own Image
- Richard Ogando
- Feb 27
- 5 min read
From falling short in the play-off’s last season, the hierarchy at Notts County set about finding a new Head Coach after relieving Stuart Maynard of his duties just one and a half seasons into his Meadow Lane tenure.
On face value that sounds harsh on Maynard, as it was still an improvement on the previous season, but for those on the terraces it was clear that the run-in to the end of season promotion campaign was definitely more ‘stumble’ than ‘run’.
The last 13 games of the regular season saw Maynard’s team accrue just 14 more points, averaging just over 1 point per game. Compare that to the previous 33 games and a PPG of 1.76, an average that would have seen a top 3 finish for the Magpies. Instead, two lacklustre play-off defeats prompted his departure.
Maynard had done much to maintain the footballing identity of the club, the foundations of which were first laid by Ian Burchnall and then further exploited by Luke Williams in a rampant National League promotion campaign.
It was a system that relied heavily on wingbacks and aggressive offensive actions but held little stock in the rudimentary values of solid defensive principles.
However, under Maynard, the fluid, fast-paced possession-based style honed by Williams had become somewhat languid, ineffective and sedentary.
Of course, there are always mitigating circumstances in these situations. In January, influential playmaker Dan Crowley was sold to big spending MK Dons and was never really replaced, ongoing long-term injuries meant Maynard was without the likes of Jodi Jones and Matt Palmer that left him reliant on individual glimpses of brilliance from an ageing David McGoldrick, who himself missed out on the final few games of the campaign with injury.
Circumstances aside, it was clear his departure was imminent and not totally unexpected.
Fast forward 12 months and a first season at the helm for current Head Coach Martin Paterson presents, on paper at least, a very similar story to that of Maynard’s with his side currently sitting 4th in the league after 33 games.
If Maynard’s departure was expected, the appointment of Paterson most certainly wasn’t.
The expectation among fans was that there would be another carbon copy of previous head coaches, adopting and continuing the free-flowing, possession-based style of play that had forged the club’s path back into the football league.
However, this was an appointment that has the potential to be one of the more astute on-field decisions to be made by the club’s owners during their tenure.
As a player, Paterson was a hardworking, intense and energetic striker, one that impacted games with key moments. And it’s this work rate and intensity that he has managed to instil in his Notts County players that has the fanbase believing he can lead the club back to League One after an eleven year absence.
Whether or not this is what led the owners to make Paterson their preferred candidate is unknown, but it was clear from the summer recruitment that more stock was being put in players that exhibited strength and physicality than previous seasons.
Despite Notts being in a similar league position to this time last season, the underlying data tells a tale regarding the small changes made by Paterson and the impact those changes have on playing style and how they might get the Magpies over the line in the promotion race.
In many cases the data compared to the same time last season is very similar.
Just 3 points separate the two seasons, the same number of goals scored and just one goal difference in the conceded column.
But it’s the hidden data that starts to paint a very different picture.
Over recent years Notts have built an identity around keeping the ball, preferring patient, probing and constructive build-up play, using width and highly positioned wingbacks to stretch the opposition. This has resulted in an average of over 63% possession since climbing back into the football league.
However, that average for this season has fallen to 55% under Paterson, and the reason is a very visible one.
Previously Notts County teams have been very good in possession, but often at sea when out of possession, especially in defensive transitions. With Paterson there is clearly a desire to be structured, hardworking and well-organised off the ball. This has contributed to a resilience in defence that was desperately missing previously.
Additionally, that out-of-possession, structured approach is complimented by a press that is intelligent, one that has been studied and worked on throughout the season and isn’t just a case of pressing for the sake of it.
Creating high value scoring opportunities was always a by-product of the expansive possession-based style of play. This is further confirmed by the xG when comparing last season to this season.
After 33 games Maynard’s team had created a total xG of 56.71 - a difference of -4.71 when compared to 52 goals scored.
However, under Paterson The Magpies have also scored 52 goals but with an xG of 44.40, a difference of +7.60.
Moving away from the expansive passing game has resulted in a reduction in the number of high value chances created, however the fast-moving and more direct attacking transitions under Paterson have garnered similar results despite the reduced number of goal scoring opportunities.
Defensively a similar story plays out. Last season saw 33 goals conceded in 33 games with an xGA of 36.16. This season it’s 32 goals conceded with an xGA of 32.20, a clear indication of the defensive resilience Paterson has instilled.
Whilst the margins between the two seasons don’t look significant there is an indication that Notts are better equipped under Paterson to see out the season successfully and eclipse his predecessor.
Off the pitch the Magpies coach’s appreciation of the connection needed with the fans and a desire to play for the badge, coupled with his honest and candid approach, has done much to win over the Notts faithful.
Martin Paterson has moulded a team in his own image, a team playing with a high tempo, a team with a relentless commitment, one that is resilient both physically and mentally. The prospect of promotion under his guidance is a distinct possibility, and one that everyone associated with the club should believe in.
About the Author
Analyst Bar Co-founder and owner of Notts County Stats Richard Ogando is an accredited PFSA member specialising in opposition performance analysis and data driven talent Identification.
As well as being a Notts County season ticket holder Richard has a passion for collecting, painting and 3D printing anything Subbuteo!
Richard Ogando | @notts_stats
Editor: Colin Sisson | @colin_sisson
Contributor: Declan Weliczko | @ARLukomski
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