League Two Playoff Final 2026 | Tactical Preview

Salford City vs Notts County, a tactical preview

As I am a contributor to AnalystsBar I cannot deny I have a connection with Notts County and I really like the incredibly old and famous club. On Monday the 25th of May they will face Salford City, and the winner will get promoted to League One. Of course, Wembley is a special place, and it will be lively, but what could we expect from the match itself!

In regular season Salford City did beat Notts County twice, both matches ending in 2-1. The last encounter had a very entertaining last part of the match as all three goals were scored in injury time. With help of Earpiece, Twelve Footballs AI scouting assistant, I did have a look at both teams and further you will find what caught my eye.

In above shown graph the fields with black numbers are the ones I will explain further as these are the numbers that stood out or show heavy fluctuations. From both teams you see two columns, the first one is the average of the whole season, the second one shows the average of last five matches. Of course, the second column of both teams is interesting is it shows the most current trends, however we must not forget that for both teams two play off matches are included against the same opponent.

Head-to-Head

PPDA (=Passes per Defensive Action)

This metric is simple, the lower the number, the faster a team goes chasing the ball. Teams with a high pressing style normally note the lowest numbers. It is clear that Salford City is a team known for their higher pressing style than Notts County. But what is interesting is that it looks like Salford changed this a little bit while Notts County notes one extra pass per defensive action. Both teams do not want to get caught on quick transitions and decided to apply a little bit more security.

It is not strange that the time to defensive action after attacking half turnover changes from 5,1 seconds to 6,1 seconds. But what I mentioned earlier it could be that Notts County thought it needed this more solid approach when they played last five matches (including play off matches versus Chesterfield).

Opposition shots from outside the box

Regarding Salford City this does fluctuate heavily, from 40% during the whole campaign to now 47% in last five matches. However, this does not say that much about Salford, teams tend to make a goal attempt earlier. At Notts County we see percentages around 42 / 43 so it does not matter which team they face, this is a steady number.

Possessions to final third within 10s after own-half recovery

I marked these numbers because it sums up how both teams tend to play, Salford with a direct style while Notts County tend to lean more on sustained build ups. This will be a remarkably interesting question: Will Notts County play the same style as they did during the campaign or do they also try to go more direct? Or will Notts County give Salford the possession they do not prefer that much?

Shots from direct attacks

This does of course heavily correlate with previous mentioned metric but in here we see that both teams go more direct in most recent matches. What I also find intriguing is the fact that shots from outside the box (in percentage) declined if we see the numbers of Salford City. So, do they prefer better goal scoring opportunities in recent times or is it just coincidental?

Salford City

Out of possession

Salford s opponents final third entries show they are vulnerable down the right half-space.

Salford does effectively hound their opponents in the middle third. It is interesting to see that opposition box entries from both crosses and carries (in percentages) declined, which suggest that their opponents focus on quick transitions.

In possession

The focus is more on direct aggressive direct attacks but in comparison with all matches they played it is not that direct as before, which shows they are a bit more cautious. It could not be a surprise that they leverage carries and dribbles over crosses.

In this visual they prefer the central zone regarding final third entries which shows their intention, the direct shortest route to the opponents goal.

Preferred formation: 1-4-4-2

Final questions: So it is a question mark how this match will unfold? Do we see a Notts County side which is comfortable in possession and try to build up sustained or will we have a kind of tennis match were the ball is switching from half to half, wave after wave? Both preferred formations would not be adapted, or will we see a massive surprise and one team that shifted their formation for this final?

Monday will be the day; in the evening we will know which team will be in League One and which team must push for promotion in League Two next year. Which team do you think will win this final? How do you think the match will unfold?

Notts County FC

Out of possession

In selected matches (last five) they are defending deeper while achieving a surprising number of recoveries in the final third. In opposition final third entries they are vulnerable in the right half space and middle area, so this area may be crucial in how the match could be decided. This is also added by number of entries in the box via this area.

In above shown visual when the opponent does enter the final third, there is no time for hesitation! In selected matches they controlled opponents that heavily relied on sustained attacks, but that is not Salford s style.

In possession

The threat from possession to box within 10s after attacking half recovery in percentages rose from 30 to 40.

Box entries from crosses in percentages declined from 38 to 27, while this percentage regarding carries rose from 19 to 26. So, they focus more on carries rather than crosses in recent games. The shots from sustained attacks declined from 15 to 3!

The xT they generally generate from the central zone, right half space and we should not forget the passing from the left wing.

Preferred formation: 1-3-4-1-2 or 1-3-4-2-1

Final questions

So it is a question mark how this match will unfold? Do we see a Notts County side which is comfortable in possession and try to build up sustained or will we have a kind of tennis match were the ball is switching from half to half, wave after wave? Both preferred formations would not be adapted, or will we see a massive surprise and one team that shifted their formation for this final?

Monday will be the day; in the evening we will know which team will be in League One and which team must push for promotion in League Two next year. Which team do you think will win this final? How do you think the match will unfold?

All data and visuals kindly supplied by Twelve Football

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Willem started his coaching career ten years ago in Belgium in combination with his coaching badges. After three seasons coaching U9 and U11s, and with an UEFA B licence, he started to coach teams in the Netherlands where he continues to coach.

In 2021 he started getting involved in the data side of the game and later started as a correspondent at StatsPerform regarding Dutch 3rd tier matches.

Written by Willem van Riel | @DutchProFootballScout

Editor: Richard Ogando | @notts_stats

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